Although some may disagree, I don't think so. The Wii already has a large fan base, and Nintendo's hardcore followers won't be swayed by something that could be considered "more casual than the Wii". And even if the camera works very well, that doesn't mean that it will be successful: for the hardware to sell, it needs something backing it - software.
Developers were very wary when starting to develop games for the Wii - they were originally gimmicky, and poorly-received, but once they learned what not to do, Nintendo started to gain a third-party developer base that is had needed for years. Will the same happen with Natal? I can't tell for sure, but once games have begun to be made for it, we will see if it will hit such success as to expand the Xbox 360's life span to 2015, as they have claimed.
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